Spain will be the oldest country in the year 2040

Spain is currently the fourth country with the highest hope globally, which stands at 83 years. If the forecasts are met, in 2040 it will surpass Japan, Switzerland and Singapore due to the increase of 2.8 years, to 85.8 years . This is the conclusion reached by research conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Washington.

Global Longevity Study

To carry out the study, the researchers took into account six key aspects: blood pressure, BMI, disorders related to blood glucose, smoking, alcoholism and pollution .

In this way they can determine the best and worst forecasts to signal potential changes in relation to the improvement of health systems both locally, nationally and globally.

To reach the conclusions that the study points out, a range of prognoses have been carried out and different simulations have been carried out related to the evolution of both the population and mortality due to 250 different causes . In the best of cases, a total of 158 countries will see their life expectancy increased. In the worst case, life expectancy will decline in almost 50% of countries in the next two decades.

Life expectancy by country in 2040

In the year 2040, Spain will be the oldest country in the world, with 85.8 years. They will be followed closely by Japan, Singapore and Switzerland , at 85.7, 85.4 and 85.2 years, respectively. In the top ten places in the ranking are other European countries such as Portugal, Italy, France and Luxembourg.

At the other end of the ranking, the least long-lived countries in 2040: Afghanistan, Swaziland, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic and Lesotho . In none of them are over 65 years old.

Taking these parameters into account, life expectancy in Spain in the long term could grow by 4.5 years, as long as the key indicators show an improvement. However, the authors of the research emphasize that if there is a deterioration in the country’s health conditions, the increase could remain in just 0.8 years.

Main causes of premature death in Spain

Currently, the five main causes of premature death in Spain are the following: cardiovascular diseases, degenerative disorders and problems related to the respiratory system. By 2040, certain types of malignant tumors are expected to disappear from the list and chronic kidney diseases will appear .

Regarding the reasons that establish how the life expectancy of the inhabitants of a country evolves, the experts point out that there is no universal answer to explain what the differences are, especially in those countries whose socioeconomic levels are similar. There are certain hereditary aspects, as well as the functioning of the health system or lifestyle, which play a relevant role, but which in many cases are not decisive.

What will be the most frequent diseases in the future?

Worldwide, the causes of premature mortality are expected to change drastically in the medium and long term. Experts insist that communicable diseases will be significantly reduced, while non-communicable diseases will increase.

Facing the year 2040, disorders of the respiratory and renal systems will have a higher incidence . Also problems related to overweight and obesity. Diseases that in many cases will take on a serious nature and will be linked to increasingly unhealthy lifestyle habits.

Global picture

Japan is currently the oldest country in the world, with a life expectancy of 83.7 years. In the year 2040, everything indicates that it will descend to second place, leaving the place to Spain.

China is especially striking . To this day, it is ranked 68th in the world ranking. However, in just two decades it could rise to 39th place, with an average increase of 5.6 years.

The United States represents the opposite case. The North American country is currently ranked 43rd, with a life expectancy of 78.7 years. As the research indicates, in 2040 everything indicates that it will fall to 64th place, with an increase in life expectancy of just 1.1 years.